The tide is turning toward the future in Green Bay

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The tide is turning toward the future in Green Bay

Postautor: elaine95 » 13 lip 2019, 5:56

QBs by the dozens throw short of the marker Reggie White Jersey White , on a third down."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCSTShareTweetShareShareWhat does Matt LaFleur’s arrival mean for Aaron Rodgers’ third-down approach?Geoff Burke-USA TODAY SportsOne of the worst things a quarterback can do is to check down on third and long. Yes, sometimes a receiver will heroically make it to the sticks, but in general, if a quarterback doesn’t throw to the sticks, they are often (but as it turns out, not always!) conceding a punt, which is the equivalent of conceding a turnover.Every year, Football Outsiders measures a QB’s propensity to check down at the worst possible time through the stat of ALEX (Air Less EXpected, named in honor of Alex Smith). ALEX is a measure of whether or not quarterbacks throw to the sticks on third down. Checking down on third down is usually a bad idea, and so ALEX was developed to shed light on the cowardly, while highlighting the accomplishments of the smart and brave. The good thing for the Green Bay Packers is that even in a down year, Aaron Rodgers, was smart and brave, throwing to the sticks on 3rd down more often than anyone outside of the otherworldly Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs. The bad thing was that Rodgers wasn’t actually very good at completing those passes, because even though he was 2nd in ALEX , he was 21st in conversion rate. There are all sorts of reasons for this, including poor play-calling, an outdated strategy that relied on “trying to make third down manageable,” a maddening tendency to take sacks, an inexperienced receiving crew, and throwing bombs on 3rd and 1 for no good reason. However, the fact still stands that Rodgers was smart enough to throw past the first down marker, though he was unable to actually complete most of those passes.2018 was an interesting season that really showed everyone the value of intelligent playcalling, and in ALEX, the geniuses came through in an unconventional way. Jared Goff, Andrew Luck, and Drew Brees all ranked in the lower half of ALEX, but as it turns out, if your scheme is good enough your receivers can actually pick up first downs through YAC. Surprisingly, all three of those quarterbacks finished in the top ten in conversion rate. Some short passes are made out of panic Geronimo Allison Jersey White , and some are made out of well-designed surgical strikes; in the modern game, ALEX probably requires more context than it used to. If you generate reliable YAC, throwing short isn’t so bad. Goff and Brees are typical of a movement in the NFL that has well-run teams focusing on avoiding third downs altogether, often throwing to the ALEX-level on first and second down. On third down, the Saints and Rams in particular focus on conversion rate above all else. They get conservative in terms of bombs and other low-completion-percentage, high leverage throws, but pull out any play that can get them ten yards, whether or not the requires an ALEX throw. The smart teams have figured out which plays are most likely to move the sticks, and that is what they run in crunch time.It’s better to be Aaron Rodgers than old Alex Smith, but it’s best to have a good QB working in an analytically-minded offense. Maybe we’ll get there next season. Marcus Mariota and Matt LaFleurWe may not know much of new head coach Matt LaFleur, but at the very least he had Marcus Mariota throwing to the sticks, and unlike Aaron Rodgers, Marcus was pretty good at doing so. In 2018, Mariota ranked 10th in ALEX and 5th in conversion rate. That alone would provide some hope for Matt LaFleur, although Mariota was also good in ALEX before LaFleur arrived. I suspect that ALEX is more of a coaching-based stat when we see high conversion rates paired with low ALEX Montravius Adams Jersey , and more of a QB stat when we see either low-low, or any kind of high ALEX. In any case, this probably says more about Mariota than LaFleur, but at least LaFleur’s offense wasn’t getting in the way. The only cure for a wild offseason is more football"WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTShareTweetShareShareCheese Curds, 4/8: Packers are ready to start fresh for offseason workoutsBenny Sieu-USA TODAY SportsFriends, it is a glorious day. We have endured the long night of the offseason, and although training camp and the real football that follows are both still months away, a new era begins today.The Packers are back in Green Bay.To say it’s been a tumultuous few months for the Packers is like calling Lake Michigan a pond. Mike McCarthy’s mid-season departure marked the first time since the pre-Lombardi era the Packers had fired a coach in-season, and the subsequent search for a coach and hiring of Matt LaFleur captured headlines around the league for weeks.Then we got a new dose of drama in the form of Ty Dunne’s Bleacher Report article, the specifics of which are no doubt familiar to you.Suffice it to say, this is a franchise desperately in need of some new grist for the mill, some actual substance to capture the imagination of beat reporters and fans alike. We get that today with the start of the Packers’ offseason program.To be sure, there will be plenty of questions about the happenings of the past few months, and Dunne’s article, in particular Aaron Ripkowski Jersey White , will no doubt get plenty of play in and around the locker room.But with each passing instance of something resembling actual football, the Packers’ drama-laden last few months will fade further into the background. The tide is turning toward the future in Green Bay. At least, that’s the hope.Five focal points for Packers as Matt LaFleur’s offseason program gets underway | Packers NewsRyan Wood outlines five things on which fans should focus as the Packers get underway today. Not surprisingly, the relationship between Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur tops the list.Establishing New Culture is LaFleur’s Top Priority | Cheesehead TVLaFleur’s relationship with Rodgers is important, but it’s just one part of the overall Packers picture. Expanded replay will be good for the game | Packers.comMark Murphy is responding to one of the most controversial developments of this offseason. No, not the Bleacher Report article. Boston College OL Chris Lindstrom checks all the boxes for Packers | Packers WireAfter all the drama of the offseason so far, you could be forgiven for forgetting all about the NFL Draft. Okay, maybe not quite. But over at Packers Wire, Zach Kruse makes the case that Chris Lindstrom, though not flashy, is the best fit for the Packers in this year’s draft. Need A Can’t-Miss Wheel Of Cheese? Try Playing It Some Hip-Hop | NPRIf you’re aging some cheese in your basement (and why wouldn’t you?), you may want to consider piping in some very specific tunes.
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